Don’t Pass with Odds

Strategy description

A Don’t Pass strategy with odds laid behind. Bet the don’t pass for $10. When the point is set, lay odds behind it for the following amounts:

• Lay odds to win 1x ($10), which is a $12 lay bet on the 6/8, $15 on the 5/9, or $20 on the 4/10
• Lay odds to win 2x ($20), which is a $24 lay bet on the 6/8, $30 on the 5/9, or $40 on the 4/10
• Lay odds to win 345x, which is a $60 lay for each number
• Lay odds to win 10x ($100), which is a $120 lay bet on the 6/8, $150 on the 5/9, or $200 on the 4/10

Note that most casinos that offer a maximum of 345x odds on the pass line will allow you to lay $60 odds on the don’t pass to win the equivalent 345x, but fewer will offer the opportunity to win 10x odds.

Simulated outcomes

To understand how the strategy could perform on any given day, we simulate 1,000,000 sessions for each of three session types: one shooter, 10 shooters, and one hour (144 rolls, letting active bets finish). The results are given in each tab below. For more information on how to read each chart, table, or statistic, see How to interpret statistics from The Craps Analyst.

Analysis

Just as the Don’t Pass mirrors the Pass Line strategy, the outcomes for this strategy mirror the Pass Line with Odds strategy in many ways. The resulting winnings are nearly inverted, this time favoring small wins per-shooter or per-10-shooter with the possibility of huge losses (when you keep replacing the don’t pass bet every time the shooter hits a point). The only difference is when a 12 rolls on the come-out, in which the don’t pass bet pushes and the pass line bet loses. (Side note: if you take the house edge of 1.41% for pass line and 1.36% for don’t pass, add them up to get 2.77%, which is exactly the chance of rolling a 12, i.e. 1 out of 36).

Just like with the Pass Line with Odds strategy, 1) the average winnings are nearly identical no matter how much odds you take and 2) the variability increases if you take more odds. Laying odds, a 0% house edge bet by itself, acts as “free variance.” It allows you to tune your strategy to match your own risk preferences, without needing to add other bets that would otherwise decrease your average winnings, which is a very nice feature. Just beware that even a small amount of odds can push your resulting winnings to a very wide distribution, which can be a problem if you have limited bankroll or are playing at tables with higher minimums.

The interesting piece of this strategy is that if you budget per-shooter, the win chance is above 50%. I discuss this phenomenon at length in One Surprising Feature of Dark Side Betting, but essentially because the don’t pass bet is favored to win once you get past the come-out, and you win on the odds bet which is at least as much as the initial don’t pass amount, you end up with many potential small wins that drive the win chance up. The more shooters you play across, the further this will drop, before it eventually drops below 50% (somewhere about 70-80 shooters). Note that unless you have very large odds multipliers, playing your sessions on a per-time basis still has a win chance below 50%, which is more indicative of a slightly negative average winnings. Ultimately, you can’t escape the house edge if you play long enough.

If you like to play the dark side and aren’t bothered by a strategy with minimal betting (i.e. you don’t get bored waiting for the point to win or lose), then Don’t Pass with Odds offers some great potential returns with minimal average loss over time.

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