Bet all of the inside place numbers (5, 6, 8, 9), with $10 on the 5/9, and $12 on the 6/8. The bets are kept active only when the point is on, and no bets are active during the come-out rolls. Total outlay is $44 per shooter. Note that each place number rolled will win $14.
Simulated outcomes
To understand how the strategy could perform on any given day, we simulate 1,000,000 sessions for each of three session types: one shooter, 10 shooters, and one hour (144 rolls, letting active bets finish). The results are given in each tab below. For more information on how to read each chart, table, or statistic, see How to interpret statistics from The Craps Analyst.
Analysis
Looking at sample sessions per-shooter gives a good sense for how the strategy flows: the worst outcomes are when a quick point then seven-out happens, and the entire $44 dollar outlay is wiped out; however, when the shooter goes on a long roll, the winnings will start to offset the betting costs, and could be upwards of $166 (in the luckiest 1% of sessions). This trend continues for 10 shooter sessions, but starts to average out where the luckiest 1% of sessions would win $400 and the unluckiest 1% of sessions would lose $300—a proportionally less wide of a gap. Win chance is relatively low for one shooter (31.6%), but increases for 10 shooters (40.5%), showing a similar trend.
The strategy consists of some low house edge bets (placing 6/8, 1.52% per bet) and some medium house edge bets (placing 5/9, 4.00% per bet). All together, the average loss is about $19.79 per 10 shooters or $34.36 per hour. For reference, that’s over 5.7 times the average loss of a Pass Line strategy, and the bet’s aren’t even active for all rolls in the session.
A couple of other interesting points:
For one shooter, the chance of a seven-out before winning any bets is 25% (six ways to roll a 7, eighteen ways to roll 5, 6, 8, or 9, so the odds are 1:3, and the probability is 1 out of 4). You can see this in the histogram, where the relative chance of winnings between -$50 and -$40 is 25%, consisting only of the $44 loss when no place bets hit.
From there, the height of the bars in the histogram follow a nice descending pattern, representing a geometric distribution, i.e. the number of winning place bets before a seven-out. We can see this pattern because the place bet win ($14) is larger than the width of the bars ($10).
The restricted winning amount ($14) and fixed outlay ($44) also causes the strange bumps in the per-10-shooter and per-hour histograms—if we were to have the bar width at $1, the pattern would look much smoother.
