Strategy description
The fundamental dark side strategy, sans odds. Bet the Don’t Pass line for $10 and replace it any time the bet is resolved. The Don’t Pass bet will win on 2 or 3, lose on 7 or 11, and push on 12 before a point is set. Any other number rolled sets the point, and the bet wins on a 7 happening before that point number rolling again. No odds are included in this page.
Simulated outcomes
To understand how the strategy could perform on any given day, we simulate 1,000,000 sessions for each of three session types: one shooter, 10 shooters, and one hour (144 rolls, letting active bets finish). The results are given in each tab below. For more information on how to read each chart, table, or statistic, see How to interpret statistics from The Craps Analyst.
Analysis
As the don’t pass bet has one of the lowest house edges, the strategy has a reasonable average loss of $0.34 per $10 unit per shooter, or about a $6.05 loss per $10 unit per hour. The average loss is one of the best for any strategy that has continuous betting, but most craps plays don’t want to play just one bet at a time.
In many ways, the Don’t Pass operates in the opposite way as the Pass Line strategy. When sessions are measured per shooter, the win rate is above 50%—it’s 61.1% per shooter or 51.3% per 10 shooters. This seems strange at first, because the don’t pass bet is not a winning bet by itself; however, the “win rate” includes half of the ties (which account for 23.8% of the per-shooter results and 8.0% of the per-10-shooter results). This phenomenon is discussed in more detail in One Surprising Feature of Dark Side Betting. However, on a per hour basis, the win rate is more reflective of the underlying house edge of the don’t pass bet, at 46.9%.
To balance out the higher win chance (consisting of smaller wins), Don’t Pass offers has potentially high downside (large losses). Budgeting for 10 shooters, the worst 1% of sessions is a $140 loss, but the best 1% is only a $90 win. As seen in the sample sessions, the big wins tend to be quicker (fast seven-outs) while the big losses are when several shooters go on long runs of hitting points, which require replacing the don’t pass bet. If instead you play on a time-at-the-table basis, the winnings distribution is much closer to a normal distribution with more balanced high and low sessions (Worst 25% = $50 loss, Best 25% = $40 win).
In terms of variability, the per-shooter variability is about 1.5x that of a $10 coin-flip, which is not surprising given that several $10 bets could happen on one shooter.
- Per shooter
- Per 10 shooters
- Per hour
Per shooter
Strategy metrics
| Average Winnings | Win Chance | Variability |
|---|---|---|
| −$0.34 | 61.1% | $15.90 |
Session quantiles
| Worst 1% | Worst 25% | Mid 50% | Best 25% | Best 1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −$60.00 | −$10.00 | $0.00 | $10.00 | $20.00 |
Resulting winnings after each simulated session
Sample of 10 sessions
Per 10 shooters
Strategy metrics
| Average Winnings | Win Chance | Variability |
|---|---|---|
| −$3.46 | 51.3% | $50.25 |
Session quantiles
| Worst 1% | Worst 25% | Mid 50% | Best 25% | Best 1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −$140.00 | −$30.00 | $0.00 | $30.00 | $90.00 |
Resulting winnings after each simulated session
Sample of 10 sessions
Per hour
Strategy metrics
| Average Winnings | Win Chance | Variability |
|---|---|---|
| −$6.05 | 46.9% | $65.45 |
Session quantiles
| Worst 1% | Worst 25% | Mid 50% | Best 25% | Best 1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −$160.00 | −$50.00 | −$10.00 | $40.00 | $140.00 |
Resulting winnings after each simulated session
Sample of 10 sessions
